Ike Could Be a Problem

Ike is a very powerful storm (Category 4 as of now) that will be heading over warm water. The track puts it into the central gulf of Mexico. New Orleans might have to evacuate a 2nd time. It's too soon to tell, but it certainly appears to be heading into the middle of the Gulf.

Considerable weakening of Gustav | Eye collapsing

Fortunately Gustav seems to be weakening in a number of ways. It still packs 115 mph winds, but the National Weather service called that "generous". The eye of he storm has weakened considerably, and the east wall seems to be falling apart. As it moves overland, it will weaken fairly rapidly, although not rapidly enough for Houma. There is still danger and the storm surge will test the levies of New Orleans. However, I think this might be a test and might give the Army Corps of Engineers valuable information about how things stand. As far as New Orleans is concerned, this might amount to the equivalent of a preseason game,

Gustav maintains strength...

...but does not appear to be intensifying. It is on track toward Houma, LA. Because hurricanes can do funny things, we shouldn't think New Orleans is completely out of the woods yet. The West Bank will likely get flooding. On TV I saw a West Bank family that decided to stay and ride out the storm. At least they were well prepared with a generator and boats. So they should be OK, although it does not sound like a wise decision. I'll find out when I wake up, if the track has been maintained. New Orleans could get sustained hurricane force winds of upwards of 85 mph. There will be damage in New Orleans, but Houma will take a beating, as well as areas south of Houma.

Gustav weakens and continues track

Gustav has weakened a bit, sustained winds down to 120 mph, but it has not slowed down. It is still expected to intensify, but it's starting point is lower than we would have thought to begin the day. I've compared the tracks, and Gustav seems very close to projections of yesterday, and doesn't currently show the east "error" that I noted earlier. That is good for New Orleans.

Tracking Gustav

I've been following the projections for Gustav. The spaghetti graph indicates that it should pass west of New Orleans, although I notice that a couple of models put it right over New Orleans. The graph is useful, but the summated plot indicates a straight line path. That is rare for hurricanes. Of course, this is the best projection so far, but these massive storms rarely travel in such a straight line fashion. At some point, I expect some kind of turning or veering in a slightly different direction. We'll see. If current projections are correct, then New Orleans will have very bad weather but really dodge a bullet. It's too soon to tell.


UPDATE

I've now included a graph showing surface winds. The part I'm interested in is the dotted line, which shows the path. The path to-date is hardly straight. Because Gustav appears to have settled in to the weather systems in the gulf, it is expected to have a much straighter path. But the next 24-36 hours are very important for determining that. The latest track has shifted it slightly east of its earlier track, which means slightly closer to new Orleans.

I talked with my mother today, and she is set on where she'll be going. My aunt will be evacuated with the other residents of the nursing facility she is in, and my cousin will drive to Baton Rouge, and then check in on his mother. Here's hoping it is not too serious.