Sunday, August 31, 2008

Tracking Gustav



I've been following the projections for Gustav. The spaghetti graph indicates that it should pass west of New Orleans, although I notice that a couple of models put it right over New Orleans. The graph is useful, but the summated plot indicates a straight line path. That is rare for hurricanes. Of course, this is the best projection so far, but these massive storms rarely travel in such a straight line fashion. At some point, I expect some kind of turning or veering in a slightly different direction. We'll see. If current projections are correct, then New Orleans will have very bad weather but really dodge a bullet. It's too soon to tell.


UPDATE

I've now included a graph showing surface winds. The part I'm interested in is the dotted line, which shows the path. The path to-date is hardly straight. Because Gustav appears to have settled in to the weather systems in the gulf, it is expected to have a much straighter path. But the next 24-36 hours are very important for determining that. The latest track has shifted it slightly east of its earlier track, which means slightly closer to new Orleans.

I talked with my mother today, and she is set on where she'll be going. My aunt will be evacuated with the other residents of the nursing facility she is in, and my cousin will drive to Baton Rouge, and then check in on his mother. Here's hoping it is not too serious.

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