Sunday, August 31, 2008

Tracking Gustav some more

This is a comparison of the 5 AM Saturday morning projection and the 2AM Sunday morning projection. The Saturday projection included the first projection of where Gustav would hit US land. Although the projections are remarkably accurate at one level, slight variations mean a lot. Over the course of less than 24 hours, Gustav has picked up speed (projected to hit land sooner than before) and projections have shifted slightly east. Neither of those things is good for New Orleans. A faster moving storm can generate a very powerful storm surge. The 2 AM projections are still for central Louisiana, but east of earlier projections. I'll check the projection again in the morning (after I wake up), but I think it will be interesting to see the 2 PM projections, as 12 hours is a pretty good time frame over open water to get a sense of track. so far, the storm seems to actually track further east than projections. I hope this does not continue.

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